Knockout predictions
The real knockout draw, predicted match-by-match. Each row blends the model (Elo + form, neutral venue) 50/50 with live bookmaker consensus. Knockouts can't end level, so the advance bar splits the 90-minute draw probability between the two sides in proportion to each one's win edge — the best cheap proxy for who survives extra time / penalties. Expected goals (xG) are the model's regulation-time estimate.
| Date | Match | P(home) | P(draw) | P(away) | xG | Advances | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Canada v Morocco | 27.9% | 29.9% | 42.2% | 1.23–1.01 |
▶ Morocco
|
blend |
| 2026-07-04 | Paraguay v France | 10.8% | 18.9% | 70.3% | 0.72–1.87 |
▶ France
|
blend |
| 2026-07-05 | Brazil v Norway | 47.7% | 25.3% | 27.0% | 1.37–1.06 |
▶ Brazil
|
blend |
| 2026-07-06 | Mexico v England | 30.5% | 29.9% | 39.6% | 1.08–1.19 |
▶ England
|
blend |
| 2026-07-06 | Portugal v Spain | 21.3% | 27.9% | 50.9% | 0.82–1.63 |
▶ Spain
|
blend |
| 2026-07-07 | United States v Belgium | 34.2% | 26.6% | 39.2% | 1.10–1.47 |
▶ Belgium
|
blend |